Study of Risk is probably as old as Murphy’s law, adage in Western culture that broadly states: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.” ,an American newspaper in Norwalk, Ohio printed this verse in 1841:
I never had a slice of bread,
Particularly large and wide,
That did not fall upon the floor,
And always on the buttered side
The hard truth cannot be wished away, but irony is that the best of the organization will face the worst of the risks, the more efficient and optimized has been the supply chain , the more the prone one would be to the risks ( unless this has been factored in the SC design ). Most of the supply chain improvements have been to remove redundancies be it going lean, reducing inventories or single sourcing. These leave the highly efficient supply chains with very little back up and the potential damages can by really significant.
We were having a chat on this the other day and came across this thought if risk management have an industry/ manufacturing strategy angle to it . an example of a bearing supply from a particular supplier and its impact on automotive production line ( line production ) compared to an Airbus ( batch/ project production ).
| Industry |
Automotive |
Aeronautics |
| Manufacturing model |
Line Production |
Batch Production |
| Supply Chain velocity ( measured on throughput time) |
Unit in Hrs |
Unit in Months |
| Disruption duration |
2 days |
2 days |
| Impact |
Mn of $’s( production loss x cost of vehicles) |
Project lag – needs correction |
It would be important hence to size the risk impact potential. Common sense says that risks can be managed by
1) Preventing failures from happening
2) If failed , then detecting failures early and efficiently
3) Once detected , respond to rectify early and effectively
Risk (R) Probability of Failure ( n) x Detectability ( d) x Impact ( I) or
and risk management strategies of organizations should address each of these levers
| Probability of Failure ( n) |
- Profile risk supplies and build redundancies ( dual source, near source , balanced sourcing , optimize inventory)
- Improve and track supplier performance
- Forecast failures ( statistical modeling)
- Advanced process collaboration
|
| Detectability ( d) |
- Invest in global supply chain visibility for live inputs on SC events
|
| Impact ( I) |
- Invest in supply chain agility and alerts
- Prepare disaster management plans
- Insure for risks
- Performance metrices on speed of responses
|
Application of best practices for supplier risk analysis like Altman Z scores , tools for statistical modeling and quantitative prediction of failures, Trade lane and genealogy analysis, inclusion of risk matrices like Var and RAROC in corporate performance management are a good start to assessing the SC risks . Risk Management programs will benefit from investment in supply chain visibility and performance management and collaborative supply management . Of course these need to be viewed in a different lens with caution on the risk strategy when selecting from the multitude of solutions available in the market.
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